基于RAGA-PPC模型的鄱阳湖地区县域交通与经济协调性评价

Coordination Degree Between Transportation and Regional Economic Development Based on RAGA-PPC Model in Poyang Lake Eco-ecological Zone

通过构建鄱阳湖生态经济区县域交通优势度与综合经济实力评价指标体系,利用RAGA-PPC模型测度了鄱阳湖生态经济区1995～2015年县域交通优势度和综合经济实力,分析了交通系统与经济系统之间耦合协调发展关系的动态变化特征及规律,并探讨了不同耦合协调发展类型的影响因素.研究结果表明:(1)交通优势度差异显著,地级市区明显优于县域单元,主要铁路过境地区交通优势较突出,其整体态势由南昌市区和九江市区构建的双核结构模式,向以南昌市区为"主核"的单核结构模式演变;(2)综合经济实力差异明显,地级市区综合经济实力突出,东北部地区县域经济发展水平较低;(3)县域交通优势度与综合经济实力为交互耦合关系,耦合协调发展度呈现螺旋上升不断增强的趋势,保持持续优化状态;(4)1995～2015年鄱阳湖地区交通优势度与综合经济实力耦合协调发展类型由分布于拮抗、磨合和协调3个不同阶段的8类减为2类,交通因素依然是制约鄱阳湖地区经济发展的主要因素之一.

By constructing the evaluation index system of the economic zone of county transportation superiority and comprehensive economic strength of Poyang Lake and by using the RAGA-PPC model,we measures transportation advantage degree and comprehensive economic strength of ecological economic zone from 1995 to 2015.According to traffic superiority and economic comprehensive strength,the dynamic change characteristics and laws of traffic and economic are analyzed.Different coupling coordinated development of two systems are divided.And the influencing factors of different types of coupling coordinated development are also discussed.The results show that:(1)The traffic superiority between prefecture level cities and county units is significant difference,which means the former is obviously better than the latter.And areas transited by main railways have outstanding advantages of traffic superiority.The overall situation,the dual core structure model of Nanchang urban area and Jiujiang urban area,is gradually evolving into single core structure model,dominated by Nanchang urban area;(2)the difference of economic comprehensive strength is obvious with comprehensive economic strength of prefecture level cities and relatively low of economic development level in the northeast counties;the relationship between county transportation superiority and comprehensive economic strength the can be described as interactive coupling,showing a spiral upward trend with increased coupling coordination degree,and maintaining a continuous optimization state;the types of coupling coordinated development of transportation superiority and comprehensive economic strength of Poyang Lake area from 1995 to 2015 have been cut from 8 categories,distribution of three different stages of antagonism,running in and coordination,down to 2 categories.Traffic is still one of the main reasons for hindering economic development of Poyang Lake area.