外商投资、产业结构与城乡收入差距——基于状态空间模型分析

Foreign investment,industrial structure and income gap between urban and rural areas Analysis based on state space model

基于中国1984—2015年外商投资、产业结构和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据,采用时变参数状态空间模型,运用KALMAN滤波算法考察产业结构和外商投资对中国城乡收入差距随时间变化的动态影响。研究发现:外商投资、产业结构与城乡收入差距间存在长期协整关系,外商投资对城乡收入差距的影响较小,并不是影响我国城乡收入差距的主要因素,外商投资对缩小城乡收入持续有着积极的影响;第二产业比重、产业结构高级化水平与城乡收入差距始终正相关,第二产业比重增加与产业结构水平高级化都进一步加剧了城乡收入差距。建议进一步利用外商投资发展我国现代化农业,积极发展农业产业化发展,并积极吸收农村剩余劳动力投入第三产业发展,同时提高农村务工人员的技能与素质,重视农村务工人员的专业技能培训,使其可以从事信息咨询、商贸物流等相对高收入的工作;制定政策吸引高素质人才留在农村,提高我国农业现代化生产水平,切实提高农村居民的收入水平,实现持续缩小城乡收入差距。

Based on the time series data of China's foreign investment,industrial structure and urban-rural income gap from 1984 to 2015,using the time-varying parameter state space model and KALMAN filtering algorithm,this paper investigates the dynamic impact of industrial structure and foreign investment on China's urban-rural income gap over time.There is a long-term co-integration relationship between industrial structure and income gap between urban and rural areas.Foreign investment has less impact on income gap between urban and rural areas.It is not the main factor affecting income gap between urban and rural areas in China.Foreign investment has a positive impact on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.The proportion of secondary industry,the level of advanced industrial structure and the income gap between urban and rural areas have a positive impact.There is always a positive correlation between the increase in the proportion of secondary industry and the upgrading of industrial structure,which further aggravates the income gap between urban and rural areas.It is suggested that foreign investment be further used to develop modern agriculture in China,actively develop agricultural industrialization,and actively absorb surplus rural labor into the development of tertiary industry,while improving rural areas.The skills and qualities of migrant workers should be emphasized,and the professional skills training of rural migrant workers should be emphasized so that they can engage in relatively high-income work such as information consultation,business logistics,etc.Policies should be formulated to attract high-quality talents to stay in the countryside,improve the level of modern agricultural production in China,effectively improve the income level of rural residents,and achieve sustainable development.Continue to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.