近60年云南省积温时空变化研究

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Active Accumulated Temperature in Yunnan Province in Recent 60 Years

选取云南省32个资料序列较长的地面气象观测站1957-2016年逐日平均气温实测数据,采用五日滑动平均法、累计距平法和Kriging空间插值法等方法,对云南省日平均气温稳定通过≥10℃期间的初日、终日、持续天数及积温的时空分布特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)从时间尺度上看,1957-2016年云南省积温整体呈增加趋势,尤其以近十年趋势更为显著,具体表现为初始日期的提前、终止日期的推后及持续天数的增加.(2)从空间尺度上看,云南省日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温呈现由南向北逐渐降低的趋势,并随着海拔升高积温随之降低.≥10℃的积温中大于5 000℃小于7 000℃的区域面积占比最大,大于7 000℃小于8 000℃的区域变化明显.(3)积温的增加、温度界限向北和高海拔地区的移动为喜温植物的生长创造了有利条件.

The temporal and spatial variation of active accumulated temperature≥10℃(AAT10)and the change of the first day,the last day and the sustained days stabilized by 10℃(AAT10)were analyzed by using five-day moving average method,cumulative anomaly method and kriging method based on the daily meteorological observation data in Yunnan province and surrounding 32 meteorological stations during 1957-2016.The result shows that:(1)From time scale point of view,the climatic trend of AAT10 increased in Yunnan province during 1957-2016,which was moved obviously in the recent 10 years.The specific phenomenon was the advancement of the first day,the retardation of the last day and the increase of sustained days.(2)From spatial scale point of view,the AAT10 in Yunnan province was reduced with increasing latitude and increasing altitude.The area of 5 000℃<AAT10<7 000℃took the largest proportion and the change of 7 000℃<AAT10<8 000℃had an apparent change.(3)The increase of AAT10 is conducive to the growth of thermophilic plants,which will expand the planting boundaries to high latitude and high altitude.