公共政策交互性与地区工业集聚——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

Interaction of Public Policies and Regional Industrial Agglomeration——Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

理论与实践均表明,工业集聚能够促进区域经济发展。在以GDP为导向的官员考核制度激励下,各级政府热衷于制定政策引导地区工业集聚,试图通过促进工业集聚来推动地方经济发展。然而,政府采用的不同政策之间存在着此消彼长、相互依存的交互作用,对政策实施效果产生实质性影响。通过分析各级政府所常采用的贸易、金融、财政三类政策之间的内在交互作用,构建理论解释模型,并基于2001-2015年全国省际面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现:贸易政策与财政政策都能不同程度地促进工业集聚,但是金融政策对工业集聚的影响并不显著;任意两类政策之间存在负向替代关系,而三类政策的交互影响却显著为正;不同政策之间的交互性影响与宏观经济环境存在关联。

Both theory and practice show that industrial agglomeration can promote regional economic development.Under the incentive of officials assessment system oriented by GDP,governments at all levels are keen on making policies to guide regional industrial agglomeration,and try to spur local economic growth by industrial agglomeration.However,the interaction behaved as countervailing and interdependent between different policies formulated by governments has a substantial impact on the effect of policy implementation.This paper analyzes the internal interaction between three policies including trade,fiscal and financial policies which are usually adopted by the government,and constructs a theoretical explanation model to carry out an empirical analysis by using the provincial panel data of 2001-2015.The study finds that both trade and fiscal policy can promote industrial agglomeration to some extent,however,the impact of financial policy on industrial agglomeration is not significant.There exists a relationship of negative substitution between any two types of policies.But interaction among the three policies tends to be significant positive.And the interactivity between different policies is related to macroeconomic environment.