区域金融市场风险及影响机制——基于财政视角的分析

Regional Financial Market Risk and Influencing Mechanism

实证模型分析了财政因素和政策变量对地区金融市场风险的影响关系,基本研究发现有以下三方面:财政因素确实对地区金融风险(由实际存贷差表示)有影响,并且非常显著;政策变量对地区金融风险有影响,但不是通过地区财政因素发生作用;规模企业因素对地区实际存贷差的影响非常显著。财政收入提高有利于降低地区金融市场风险,财政收入与地区金融风险呈现反向变动关系;财权和事权不匹配程度越高,地方政府财政支出越会扩大地区金融市场风险;政府投资对地区经济发展的有利影响占主导地位,政府投资有利于降低地区金融市场风险。限制财政对企业或平台的隐性担保,可以阻断金融风险向财政风险转移的路径;加强对地区中小企业的扶持力度,有助于地区金融市场发展和降低地区金融风险。

This paper examines the impact of financial factors and policy variables on the risk of regional financial market.The basic research findings are as follow:fiscal factors do impose effect on regional financial risk and be very significant;policy variables have effect on regional financial risk but not through fiscal factors;the effect of the enterprise scale on actual regional debt-credit balance is very significant.Increasing fiscal revenue reduces local financial market risk and the relation between fiscal revenue and local financial risk shows negative;the more serious fiscal rights and responsibilities do not match,the bigger impact of local government expenditure on the financial risk;with a leading position of government investment's positive effect on local economic development,the government investment helps reduce financial market risk.To limit the implicit guarantee of government towards enterprises can block the path from financial risk to fiscal risk.And to strengthen support to small and medium enterprises helps to reduce regional financial risks.