CMS模型中国木质林产品供给波动分析

Analysis of Supply Fluctuation of Chinese Woody Forest Products Based on CMS Model

基于FAOSTAT数据库中1997—2016年世界各国原木、锯材、人造板、木浆、纸和纸板等主要木质林产品出口额和中国原木、锯材、人造板、木浆、纸和纸板等主要木质林产品的进口额、产量、出口量、出口额的数据,将中国木质林产品供给分为国外进口和国内供给两部分,运用重新构造的CMS模型探究影响中国木质林产品供给波动的因素。结果显示:中国木质林产品供给规模整体呈波动上升趋势,受2001年底中国加入WTO以及2008年世界金融危机影响均较大,供给市场结构、产品结构发生了巨大变化;中国木质林产品供给受世界木质林产品供给规模的影响最为显著,供给市场结构变动有效促进了中国木质林产品供给的增长,但供给产品结构仍不够合理;中国木质林产品国内供给增长严重依赖增长效应,国内供给产品结构效应有好转迹象,但贡献率仍然不高,国内供给的整体竞争力十分堪忧,特定竞争力效应虽优于国外但有被反超的趋势,对国内供给增长的贡献比较低。因此,中国应坚定不移推动林业对外开放;深入研究世界木质林产品供给规模、结构及其变动趋势,利用好国际国内两个市场、两种资源;强化质量、提倡创新,致力于提高非价格竞争力,促进木质林产品国内供给健康、持续发展,保障中国木质林产品供给安全。

⑴Background--China is a major country in the production,trade and consumption of woody forest products.The supply of woody forest products is deeply affected by the international economy and trade environment.Analysis of the supply fluctuation of Chinese woody forest products has important practical significance for alleviating the contradiction between the supply and demand of Chinese wood,improving the competitiveness of Chinese woody forest products,and responding to wood safety issues.⑵Methods--The CMS model is widely used for the analysis of export trade competitiveness and export trade fluctuation factors.In recent years,domestic scholars have begun to apply it to the analysis of import trade.In order to achieve the purpose of using the CMS model to study the supply fluctuation of Chinese woody forest products,the model is further expanded from the trade field by using reverse thinking.That is to say,the domestic supply part of Chinese woody forest product supply is regarded as imported from China,and then to analyze the adaptability of Chinese domestic woody forest product supply structure to the supply structure of Chinese woody forest products and examine the changes in the competitiveness of Chinese domestic woody forest product supply.Based on the export value of log,sawn timber,wood-based panels,wood pulp,paper and cardboard from 1997 to 2016 in the world in FAOSTAT database,and the import quantity,output,export quantity and export value of these woody forest products in China,the supply of Chinese woody forest products is divided into two parts of foreign import and domestic supply.On the basis of descriptive statistical analysis,the reconstructed CMS model is used to explore the factors affecting the supply fluctuation of Chinese woody forest products from the perspectives of scale,market source structure,product structure and competitiveness.⑶Results--The overall supply of Chinese woody forest products shows a fluctuating upward trend.The supply of Chinese woody forest products is most significantly affected by the supply of world s woody forest products.The changes in supply market structure have effectively promoted the growth of Chinese supply of woody forest products,but the product supply structure is still not reasonable.The overall competitiveness of Chinese woody forest product supply develops slowly,and the promotion of specific competitiveness is more obvious.The growth of domestic supply of Chinese woody forest products is heavily dependent on the growth effect,and the structural effect shows signs of improvement,but its contribution rate is still not high,and the overall competitiveness of domestic supply is very worrying.Although the specific competitiveness effect is better than that of foreign countries,it has a tendency to be overtaken in recent years,and its contribution to domestic supply growth is relatively low.⑷Conclusions and Discussions--China should unswervingly promote the opening up policy of forestry,thoroughly study the scale,structure and trends of the supply of woody forest products in the world,make good use of both domestic and international markets and resources,strengthen quality,promote innovation,and strive to improve non-price competitiveness,so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of domestic supply of woody forest products and ensure the supply safety of Chinese woody forest products.