基于时间序列的汽车分时租赁站点发展模式分类

Classification on Carsharing Station's Development Patterns Based on Time Series Data

针对不同区位与建成环境开展汽车分时租赁站点发展模式分析,能够支撑站点布局优化,促进城市土地与空间资源的合理规划使用。利用站点的时间序列数据,结合确定性因素分解、平稳性检验、Mann-Kendall检验以及截面运营评价,判断站点整体发展模式,将其分为A、B、C、D、E共5类。分析上海市分时租赁系统EVCARD站点的发展模式,研究发现站点运营情况总体呈增长趋势,70%的站点发展运营较好。从站点区位来看,超过70%的外围站点及约80%的郊区站点运营趋势为增长型或稳定型,但内环内站点的长期运营状况较差。从建成环境来看,约80%的公园绿地和交通枢纽区域站点表现为增长或稳定型发展,接近50%的行政办公区域站点长期发展较差。

The analysis of car-sharing stations development patterns under different built environment are important for the enterprises and to the society.The former can support the comprehensive evaluation on car-sharing stations,meanwhile,the latter can contribute to the optimization of stations’layout and planning of land resources.Based on the time series data of all stations,this paper proposes a method for classification on car-sharing station’s development patterns,using the deterministic factor decomposition,stationarity test and Mann-Kendall test.This paper further analyzes the development patterns of car-sharing system EVCARD stations in Shanghai.Results show that there is a generally growing trend,with 70%of the stations operating well.From the perspective of station’s location,more than 70%of the peripheral stations and about 80%of the suburban stations show the growing or stable developing trend,and the developing trends of the inner-ring stations are poor.From the perspective of built environment,about 80%stations locating in the park or transportation area are developing stably or preferably,while nearly 50%stations locating near the administrative area are developing poorly.