中国专利密集型产业2030增长预测及高质量发展思路

China's Patent-intensive Industry Growth Forecast in 2030 and High-quality Development Ideas

专利密集型产业的制高点是标准和人力资本,推动专利密集型产业发展是经济高质量发展的重要抓手,在分析现有统计数据的基础上,对中国专利密集型产业的增加值增长趋势进行了预测。结果表明,到2020年,中国专利密集型产业占国内生产总值的比重会达到12. 7%～12. 9%,2030年达到14. 2%～17. 2%。认为如果在2018至2025年连续实施刺激政策,到2020年,专利密集型产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重则会达到14. 6%～14. 9%,2030年可能会达到19. 6%～23. 6%,中国将成为知识产权中等强国。基于此,提出了发展高质量专利密集型产业的具体思路,强调专利密集型产业生产率高,增长速度快,是推动中国经济增长的一股崭新动能,预示着中国经济结构优化升级的新方向。

The Key of patent-intensive is standards and human capitals.Promoting the development of patent-intensive industries is an important grasp of high-quality economic development.On the basis of detailed analysis of the existing statistical data,this paper forecasts the growth trend of value-added of patent-intensive industries in China.The results show that by 2020,the proportion of patent-intensive industries to GDP may reach 12.7%~12.9%,and by 2030 it may reach 14.2%~17.2%.If the stimulus policy is implemented continuously from 2018 to 2025,the proportion of added value of patent-intensive industries in GDP will probably reach 14.6%to 14.9%in 2020 and 19.6%to 23.6%in 2030.At that time,China will become a medium power in intellectual property.Hence basing on it,the specific ideas have been designed,the high productivity and fast growth of patent-intensive industries are a brand-new momentum to promote China′s economic growth,which indicates a new direction for the optimization and upgrading of China′s economic structure.