特大城市人口调控的再思考

Rethinking on Population Control for Megacities

城市人口的增长与城市形态和产业结构演变有着密切联系,对特大城市人口的调控需要从两方面着手。一方面,随着城市形态的演变,特大城市已经由单一中心城市演变成多中心的大都市区和城市群,城乡劳动力市场的发展也突破了行政边界。另一方面,特大城市均已经完成工业化,转变成以服务业为主导的产业结构。这些变化使得特大城市的人口调控需要从其所在的大都市区和城市群范围加以考虑。借鉴OECD提出的城市功能区理念,基于普查数据和地理数据,文章构建了中国城市功能区体系。在此基础上,明确特大城市所在都市区的范围,并对一线城市为核心的大都市区人口演变进行分析。统计数据表明:一线城市北上广深的人口已经由快速增长转变为低速甚至负增长,人口规模也已趋于稳定。当前特大城市人口问题主要体现为结构不平衡,因此,特大城市人口调控的关键在于推动中心城区人口的疏解,促进人口空间分布的均衡。

Urban population growth has a very close relationship with urban pattern and industrial structure.Thus population control for megacities needs to consider these aspects.As evolution of urban pattern,megacities have turned from single center cities into metropolitan areas with multiple centers,as well as urban agglomerations.Urban rural labor market has broken through administrative boundaries.Meanwhile,megacities have finished industrialization and changed into a service occupied structure.Those changes make it necessary for rethinking population control for megacities from an angle of metropolitan area and urban agglomeration.Using the definition of Functional Urban Area by OECD,based on population census data and geographic data,we constructed a system for functional urban area for China.Based on this system,we define the area of urban agglomeration for megacities.As indicated by statistic data,population growth in first tier cities has turned from high rate into low rate even negative rate,with population scale reaching a steady state.Population issues in megacities embody mainly in structural imbalance.Thus the key for population control for megacities is to promote population extraction from urban center so as to facilitate spatial balance of population distribution.