快速城镇化区域用地扩张模拟的规划约束对比研究

A Comparative Study on Planning Constraints of the Rapid Urbanization Area Expansion Simulation

挖掘规划要素对于用地模拟的影响程度,为科学预知快速城镇化区域用地状况和城乡规划编制提供依据。采用基于决策向导(Decision Wizard)的元胞自动机和马尔科夫链(CA-Markov)的综合模型,以重庆两江新区2010年、2013年和2016年Landsat影像为例,分别对有无规划约束下的用地状况进行模拟,探讨不同类型的规划在其中发挥的作用,并合理预测研究区未来用地状况。结果显示,规划约束下模拟的Kappa系数为80.62%,表明规划要素可以一定程度上提高模拟结果的准确性;建设用地扩张沿交通线发展明显,面状规划要素主要体现在对建设用地发展的限制中;研究区未来建设用地将继续大幅扩张,需要调整现有规划方能满足进一步发展需求。

This paper aims to excavate the influence of planning elements on land simulation,which provides a basis for scientific prediction of regional land use in urbanization area,and gives the reference of urban and rural planning and ecological environment restoration.Using Landsat images of 2010,2013 and 2016,this paper has simulated the land use with or without planning constraints,and discussed the role played by the planning,and predicted the future land use structure of research area in 2019 and 2025 with the tested constraints reasonably in the Liangjiang New Area of Chongqing by the methods of geographic information system(GIS),remote sensing(RS)technology,and a comprehensive model of cellular automata and Markoff chain(CA-Markov)based on decision guide(Decision Wizard).The study shows that:1)There is significant growth of construction land in the study area,and most of them were converted from farmland over the past six years.2)The simulation accuracy in 2016 is 80.62%(Kappa)under planning constraints,while the simulation accuracy is 73.24%(Kappa)without planning constraints.3)The planning elements can improve the accuracy of the simulation result to some extent for rapid urbanization area.So it concludes that:1)The planning has become a vital factor for the expansion of the modern towns.2)The development of construction land expansion along the traffic line is obvious,point elements make the new expansion to occur outside the original urban area as much as possible,and polygon elements are mainly reflected in the limitation of construction land development.3)In the future,the construction land of the study area will continue to expand substantially,and the existing planning need to be adjusted to meet the further development needs.