中国农业发展韧性时空分异特征及影响因素研究

Study on the Spatial-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Development Resilience in China

提升农业发展韧性是保障农业供给和推动农业现代化的重要内容。基于2006-2015年省域尺度农业生产、生态和经济综合数据研究表明,各省域农业发展韧性均呈现优化趋势,但省际差异有所扩大;中国农业发展韧性存在显著空间关联特征且冷热点分布不均;空间互动状态下农村教育水平发展有利于强化农业总体韧性,产业结构升级对农业总体韧性直接效应和间接效应均为负。农均播种面积增长有助于提升本地农业生产和生态韧性,财政支农投入增长有助于提升本地农业经济韧性,城市化进程有助于提升本地农业生产韧性但削弱农业生态韧性。提升农业发展韧性并缩小区域间农业韧性发展差距需要多措并举,包括增强农业发展韧性的系统动力、完善农业发展韧性的区间统筹机制和因地制宜确定农业资金投入方向等。

To promote agricultural development resilience is important to the modernization of agriculture and the coordinated development in China.Based on the provincial agricultural production,ecology and economy data of 2006-2015 and spatial analysis method,the study shows that the whole agricultural development resilience in each province is increasing,but difference among provinces has expanded,and the agricultural development resilience in China has the characteristics of spatial association.The development of rural education is conducive to agricultural development resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on agricultural development resilience.The growth of agricultural planting acreage can benefit local agricultural production and ecological resilience,financial support for agriculture helps to promote local agricultural economic resilience,urbanization helps to enhance local agricultural production resilience but weaken agricultural ecological resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on local agricultural production and economic resilience,also has adverse effects on economic resilience of the surrounding areas.To promote the agricultural development resilience and narrow regional gap should take measures including strengthening the system dynamic of agricultural resilience development,improving co-ordination mechanism and taking measures according to local conditions to determine the direction of agricultural investment.