CMIP5全球气候模式对中国黄河流域气候模拟能力的评估

Assessing CMIP5 climate simulations and objective selection of models over the Yellow River basin

利用格点化观测资料,对第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)提供的18个全球气候模式在黄河流域的模拟能力进行评估和客观选择。结果表明:基于1961—2005年黄河流域逐日的气温和降水观测资料,对黄河流域气候进行了模拟评估,通过对气候平均态、年际变率、季节循环、年际变化主要模态及概率密度函数等方面的模拟能力进行统计评价,分析得到所有模式模拟能力的综合评分排序,剔除较差的模式样本。最终选择的5个全球气候模式分别为MIROC-ESM-CHEM、CSIRO-Mk3-6-0、NorESM1-M、CNRM-CM5和EC-EARTH,5个全球气候模式综合评分较优,且基本可以覆盖18个CMIP5模式对黄河流域未来平均气温预估的不确定性分布,形成了可用于黄河流域气候变化研究的多模式集合系统。

Based on gridded observation dataset,multi-criteria assessment on daily surface air temperature and precipitation(1961-2005)from 18 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5)models were conducted over the Yellow River Basin.A suite of statistics is calculated,including climatological mean,interannual variation,seasonal cycle,interannual modes,and probability distribution function,to evaluate their performances.According to the comprehensive rank,the models with poor validation are excluded.Five models,i.e.,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,CSIRO-Mk3-6-0,NorESM1-M,CNRM-CM5,and EC-EARTH are therefore recommended for the regional multi-model climate change projections over the Yellow River basin.The selected subset can also sample the range of uncertainty represented by the full ensemble.