数据漏报对总和生育率与出生率确定性函数关系的影响

The Effect of Data Leakage on the Relationship between Total Fertility Rate and Birth Rate Determinate Function

根据总和生育率与出生率确定性函数关系,利用国家统计局人口统计数据,分别计算了四种出生人口数据漏报模式下总和生育率与出生率的关系系数。并与官方公布数据(有数据漏报)情况下估算的关系系数进行对比分析,发现虽然出生数据漏报对总和生育率和出生率有明显的影响,但是对总和生育率与出生率关系系数影响很小,可以忽略。因此,可以认为出生人口数据漏报对总和生育率与出生率具有同等的影响,而对两者之间的关系系数没有影响。并利用不受数据漏报影响的K值,估算出中国1990年以来的总和生育率,研究结果是官方和非官方都可以接受的生育水平。最后,文章还对今后的研究方向提出了建议。

Based on the deterministic function relationship between the total fertility rate and the birth rate,the relationship coefficients between the total fertility rate and the birth rate under four birth data leakage modes are calculated by using the National Statistical Bureau’s demographic data. Comparison to the relationship coefficient of the estimation with official publication of data( data missing),it is found that although the missing report of birth data has a significant effect on the total fertility rate and birth rate,it has little effect on the relationship coefficient between the total fertility rate and the birth rate and the impact of data leakage can be ignored. Therefore,it can be considered that the birth population data leakage exert the same influence on the total fertility rate and the birth rate,but has no effect on the relationship coefficient between the two. The total fertility rate in China since 1990 has been estimated using K values unaffected by missing data. The fertility is that both official and non-official are acceptable. Finally,the paper also puts forward some suggestions on the future research works.