政府清廉、财政政策与经济增长

Government Integrity,Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

减速治理背景下,政府官员廉洁程度与财政政策有效性之间的动态关系引起社会广泛关注。基于赋予转移概率以时变特征的MS-TVTP模型,研究发现:中国腐败治理取得阶段性成果,但并未呈现持续性改善趋势;政府廉洁状况的改善有助于财政政策有效性的提高,也有利于经济扩张区间的相对延长,最终促进经济增长,但由于中国尚处于腐败较为严重区间且改善程度有限,导致这一促进作用并不十分突出;此外,信贷政策对经济增长的促进作用已十分有限。

Under the background of deceleration governance, the dynamic relationship between the integrity of government officials and the effectiveness of fiscal policy has aroused widespread concern in society. Based on the MS-TVTP model, in consideration of transfer probability with time-varying characteristics, the research found that, China's corruption governance has achieved periodic results, but it has not shown a continuous improvement trend; the improvement of the government's integrity is helpful to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy, and is conducive to the relative extension of the economic expansion interval, and ultimately promotes economic growth, however, due to the fact that China is still a severe corruption area and the degree of improvement is limited, the promotion effect is not very prominent; in addition, the promotion of credit policy to economic growth is very limited.