基于多变量灰色预测模型的省级电力公司中长期电量预测

Mid-and-long term electricity consumption forecasting of provincial power companies based on multi-variable gray forecasting model

目前我国中长期电量预测的结果准确度难以进一步提高,且传统GM(1,1)由于其自身特点,已不再适应近年来全社会用电量变化呈现出的新规律。基于省级电力公司各产业全社会用电量数据,分析了用电量的变化规律。通过挖掘各产业影响用电量变化的因素,分产业建立多变量灰色预测模型,预测了江苏省2016—2018年全社会用电量,预测结果可靠。最后对模型应用的特点进行了总结。

At present,the accuracy of domestic mid-and-long term power forecasting is hard to be further improved.Because of its own characteristics,traditional GM(1,1)no longer meets the new law of total electricity consumption in recent years.Based on the total electricity consumption data of various industries in provincial power companies,the changing law of electricity consumption is analyzed.Through mining various factors that influence the change of power consumption in each industry,multi-variable gray models are established to forecast the whole society’s electricity consumption respectively in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2018,and the result is reliable.Finally,the characteristics of the model application are summarized.