基于散布误差分析的改进射击成绩评定模型

Improved Shooting Performance Evaluation Model Based on Scatter Error Analysis

为改善目前部队射击训练中,检靶误差对成绩影响较大的状况,提出了一种基于散布误差分析的改进射击成绩评定模型。针对现有的成绩评定模型,分析了预设的矩形概率散布的合理性和不足;进而针对矩形散布的不足,在散布中心不变的假设下,通过等概率转换,将弹着点散布修改为椭圆散布;利用统计模拟法随机生成多组弹着场景,给定一组不同的检靶误差,分别利用矩形散布模型和椭圆散布模型进行成绩评估。结果显示在不同的检靶误差下,改进的射击成绩评定模型评估出正确成绩的概率得到提高,在正确评定射击成绩方面表现更优。

In order to improve the current situation that the target-scoring error has a great influence on the performance of the military shooting training,an improved evaluation model based on the scatter error analysis is proposed.In view of the existing performance evaluation model,the rationality and deficiency of the presupposed rectangular probability distribution are analyzed.In view of the deficiency of the rectangle distribution,the scatter distribution of the bullet point is modified to the elliptical dispersion by equal probability conversion on the assumption that the scattered center is invariable,and a number of set of shooting scenes are randomly generated by the statistical simulation method.On the basis of target detection error,we use rectangle dispersion model and ellipse dispersion model to evaluate target scoring results respectively.The results show that under different target-scoring errors,the improved design performance evaluation model has improved the probability of correct results and better performance in evaluating shooting performance.