基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的阿里巴巴“双十一”成交金额预测

Prediction of Alibaba “Double Eleven” Turnover Based on Modified GM(1,1) Model

阿里巴巴"双十一"网购节成交金额的历史数据是一个内含指数规律的时间序列,可以基于GM (1,1)模型对其未来值进行预测。相对于传统的GM (1,1)模型,改进的GM (1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度和更可信的预测值。改进的GM (1,1)模型的预测结果表明,2018年阿里巴巴"双十一"成交额有望达到2270亿元。2014年后预测曲线的曲率明显增大,变得更为陡峭,说明"双十一"成交额在加速上升,"双十一"网购节还有很大的营销潜力可挖,阿里巴巴仍有很大的努力空间。在我国经济增长步入"新常态",转型升级面临困难,亟需"互联网+"助推的背景下,这一预测结果有助于提振经济发展的信心。

The data on the historical turnover of Alibaba "Double Eleven"online shopping carnival has a latent characteristic of exponential increase justifies that GM( 1,1) model is suitable to be used to forecast the future values of the turnover of Alibaba"Double Eleven". The modified GM( 1,1) model has higher prediction precision and more reliable forecasts in comparison with the traditional GM( 1,1) model. The prediction results show that the turnover of Alibaba " Double Eleven" will reach 169. 8 billion RMB in 2017,and that the prediction curve is rising at a even faster increasing rate after 2014. These findings demonstrate that there still exists huge marketing potential for Alibaba Group to develop and make greater efforts. In the context that China’s economy growth has entered " New Normal",facing difficulties in transformation and upgrading,and hungering for the boost from " Internet + ",these forecasts undoubtedly help to raise China’s confidence in future economy growth.