水资源短缺的定量分析研究

Analysis on Shortage of Water Resources

利用灰色理论,建立GM(1,1)模型进行人口预测,通过分析影响水量供给和需求的动态因素,计算水资源可承载的最大人口数,进而构建水资源人口承载力指标模型;然后以青岛地区为例,利用该模型对未来的水状况进行预测,并给出了相应的干预措施。

Using the grey theory,the GM(1,1)model is established to predict the population,and by analyzing the dynamic factors that affect the water supply and demand,the maximum number of people that can be carried by water resources is calculated,and then the index model of water resources population carrying capacity is constructed,and then the Qingdao area is taken as an example,and the model is and the corresponding intervention measures are given.