房地产调控政策下北京市住宅价格预测

Housing Price Forecast with the Context of Regulation Policy in Bejing

房地产市场的繁荣与购房能力和需求的不匹配导致了近年来北京市住宅价格呈现病态增长的局面,住宅价格的畸高不利于市场经济的运转。在限购政策的背景下,本文对调控政策对北京市住宅市场的销售、供求和价格的影响进行了量化分析与预测,以分析为基础提出了调控政策效用的"潮汐周期"。最后对房地产调控提出了建议。

The prosperity of the real estate market in Beijing and the mismatch of the purchasing power and demand have led to a morbid growth of the housing price in Beijing in recent years. The abnormal housing price does harm to the operation of the market economy. In the context of the purchase restriction policy,this article leads study of the characteristics of Beijing's residential market. Summarizing the "tidal phenomenon" of policy effectiveness and correct the forecasted residential price data. Suggestions for the regulation of the residential market are provided.