基于综合指标的Logistic中小企业生命周期研究

On the Logistic Stage Division of the Life Cycle of the SMEs Based on a Comprehensive Indicator

企业的生命周期阶段划分是企业信用评价的主要内容,企业生命周期阶段划分的准确性将直接决定企业信用评价的真实性和可靠性。本文根据中小企业的特点,用五种财务指标构造了可以衡量中小企业盈利能力和成长能力的综合指标,并用其代替传统Logistic生长曲线中所用的主营业务收入,得到了新的中小企业生命周期阶段划分方法。这种方法弱化了中小企业财务数据不够准确的问题,而且通过对信贷违约企业的检验,发现此方法相对于传统Logistic生长曲线法有更高的准确率。本文还对我国制造业、批发零售业、建筑业、交通运输业这几大主要行业的中小企业生命周期进行了定量划分,分析了这些行业的发展现状,并结合我国实际给出了政策建议。

The stage division of the enterprise’s life cycle is a main part of the enterprise’s credit evaluation. The accuracy of the stage division of the enterprise’s life cycle directly determines the authenticity and reliability of the enterprise credit evaluation. This paper constructs a comprehensive indicator that can measure the profitability and growth ability of the small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) with five financial indicators according to their characteristics,and figures out a new stage division method of the SMEs’ life cycle by replacing the traditional logistic growth curve with the comprehensive indictor. This method makes the financial data of the SMEs less inaccurate. The test of the credit defaulting enterprises shows shares more accuracy than the traditional method of the logistic growth curve. This paper also makes a quantitative division of the SMEs’ life cycles in the manufacturing industry, wholesale and retail, building industry and transportation industry. Based on an analysis of the current development of such industries, this paper provides some policy suggestions.