基于多方满意的城市轨道交通PPP项目收益调节模型研究

Revenue Adjustment Model of Urban Rail Transit PPP Projects Based on the Satisfactions of the Main Stakeholders

政府和社会资本合作(Public-Private-Partnership,PPP)模式利益相关者众多,特许经营期长,收益波动较大等特点使得项目收益及其调整成为项目众多参与者关注的焦点,也是PPP项目成功至关重要的因素.该文以核心利益相关者的利益诉求为关切点,分析轨道交通PPP项目核心利益相关者相互关系的影响因素及其变化规律,基于系统动力学方法建立了动态利益调整模型,使相关方利益达到均衡.最后以北京地铁4号线PPP项目为例,构建特许定价、特许期和政府补贴等多因素组合的调节方案集,通过多目标优选,以政府、社会资本和乘客的综合满意度最大为原则优选最佳方案.

Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) model has the characteristics of a large number of stakeholders, long franchise period and large income fluctuation, which make the project revenue adjustments become the focus of attention of many project participants, and it is also the key factor for the success of PPP project. Based on the interest demands of the main stakeholders, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the relationship among the core stakeholders of the rail transit PPP projects, and establishes a dynamic revenue adjustment model based on the system dynamics method to balance the interests of the stakeholders. Finally, taking the Beijing Metro Line 4 as an example, the paper constructs a set of adjustment schemes which are composed of franchise pricing, franchise period and government subsidy. The best scheme is selected according to the principle of maximizing the comprehensive satisfaction of the government, social capital and passengers.