城市轨道交通环线试运营客流预测方法研究

Research on passenger flow forecast method during trial operation of urban transit circle line

为解决目前城市轨道交通环线开通试运营期间,客流预测OD数据难以获取、"初设"客流预测结果偏差较大的问题,考虑相邻轨道车站客流分布及出行规律具有相似性,提出一种"既有网络+新开环线"出行需求生成方法。既有线网OD计算以不同线路客流自然增长规律为基础;新开环线客流OD分布,根据环线车站进、出站客流量,结合环线车站位置分布以及既有线网组团间客流分布规律计算所得。经过验证,通过"既有网络+新开环线"算法实施轨道环线试运营期间出行需求预测,并将其在新的线网中分配,可实现线网客流情况快速计算,为线网运营组织安排提供依据。

In order to solve the problem that the OD data of passenger flow forecast is difficult to obtain and the passenger fl ow forecast results in “preliminary design” are far from the actual situation during the trial operation of urban circle line, taking into consideration of the similarity of passenger flow distribution and travel patterns of adjacent transit stations, this paper proposes a method for generating travel demand of Existing Network + New Open Circle Line. The existing network OD calculation is based on the natural growth pattern of passenger fl ow on different lines. The passenger fl ow OD distribution of the newly constructed circle line is calculated according to the in and out passenger fl ow of the circle line stations, based on the location distribution of the circle line station and the distribution pattern of passenger fl ow between the existing network groups. After calculation and verifi cation, by the Existing Network + Newly Opened Circle Line algorithm to calculate the travel demand during the trial operation of the urban circle line and distribute it in the new line network, which helps to realize the fast calculation of the network passenger fl ow and provide basis for the network operation and organization arrangement.