不同海拔高度农牧民气候变化及其影响感知差异分析

Analysis on the Difference of Climate Change Perception and Adaptation of Farmers and Herdsmen at Different Altitudes

本研究通过问卷调查山南市不同海拔高度的农牧民对气候变化及其影响的感知,并通过计算其相对感知强度,探究不同海拔高度农牧民气候变化及其影响的感知差异,并因地制宜地提出适应气候变化的措施。结果表明:(1)山南市绝大部分农牧民感知到气候变化,不同海拔高度的农牧民对本地气候变化的感知存在差异。农牧民对夏季升温、过去与现在气候对比方两方面,相对感知强度很高,而且基本随着海拔高度的升高而增强。这表明海拔高度是影响农牧民对气候变化感知一个重要因素。(2)不同海拔高度的农牧民一致认为可利用水源发生了变化,且随海拔升高,认为可利用水源减少的农牧民增多,变化的时间大致在2011年以后。这与国家气象信息中心数据显示的山南市降水量从2010年开始至今持续低于多年平均值相吻合。(3)政府应建立防灾减灾体系,拓展当地的产业格局,根据不同海拔村庄的气候环境制定相宜的适应计划,积极利用气候变化带来的潜在利益,减少气候变化带来的损失。

This study investigated the perceptions of farmers and herdsmen at different altitude in Shannan city on climate change and its impacts through questionnaires and explored the differences in perceptions on climate change and its impacts of farmers and herdsmen by calculating their relative perception intensity. What’s more, some measures to adapt to climate change were proposed based on local conditions in this paper. The results showed that most farmers and herdsmen in Shannan city had been aware of climate change, but they had different views on local climate change at different altitudes. Farmers and herdsmen had a high degree of relative awareness of the temperature rise in summer and the climate changes before and now. This showed that the altitude was an important factor influencing farmers and herdsmen’s perception of climate change. Farmers and herdsmen at different altitudes agreed that the available water source had changed. As the altitude increased, the number of farmers and herdsmen who believe that the available water source decreased. Additionally, the change in water source was roughly after 2011, which was consistent with the data from National Meteorological Information Center showing that the precipitation in Shannan had been consistently lower than the multiyear average since 2010. The government should establish a disaster prevention and mitigation system, expand the local industrial pattern and formulate appropriate adaptation plans according to the climate environment of villages at different altitudes, and make active use of the potential benefits of climate change to reduce the losses caused by climate change.