中国“一带一路”节点城市CO_2排放特征分析

Study on present status of carbon emissions in China's 'Belt and Road Initative' node cities

"一带一路"节点城市的CO_2排放特征分析是绿色"一带一路"建设的关键和重要支撑。本文以我国"一带一路"沿线37个节点城市作为研究对象,基于国际上较为成熟和应用广泛的城市CO_2排放核算方法,编制了节点城市在2005、2012、2015三年的CO_2排放清单,包含工业能源排放、工业过程排放、农业排放、服务业排放、城镇生活排放、农村生活排放、交通排放7个部门的直接排放和外调电力引起的间接排放。本研究分别从时间和空间维度,从CO_2排放总量及结构、排放强度、空间聚类三个方面,对37个节点城市的CO_2排放特征进行了系统分析。结果表明,中国"一带一路"节点城市CO_2排放在数量上呈现出较大的差异性,排放前5的城市几乎比排放后5的城市的CO_2排放量高出两个数量级。2005—2015年间,"一带一路"节点城市CO_2直接排放总量以年均4. 71%的增长率快速增加,以西北地区节点城市增长最快,以服务业增幅最大。而在空间上始终保持沿海、内陆、东北、西北、西南节点城市的CO_2直接排放量由大到小的顺序不变,其中沿海地区节点城市占到45. 31%。工业能源消耗是"一带一路"节点城市CO_2直接排放的主要来源,占比在71%～78%之间。我国"一带一路"节点城市的人均CO_2排放及单位GDP的CO_2排放,均低于节点城市所在区域的平均水平。"一带一路"倡议实施以来,西南和内陆地区节点城市单位GDP的CO_2排放水平逐渐提升,2015年呈现出内陆-西南-沿海-东北-西北节点城市的单位GDP的CO_2排放水平逐渐递增趋势。在人均CO_2排放和人均GDP二维空间上的城市聚类结果表明,近1/2节点城市处于"低排放、低经济"组,以西南地区节点城市为典型; 1/3节点城市处于"低排放、高经济"组,以沿海地区节点城市为典型,是比较理想的城市发展模式;仅3个西北地区节点城市位于"高排放、低经济"组;"高排放、高经济"组仅有舟山、宁波、呼和浩特3个节点城市。本研究结果为"一带一路"各节点城市找出各自的低碳发展路径和模式,因地制宜地提出相关的低碳政策建议提供了依据和支撑。

Systematic characteristic analysis for carbon emissions in node cities is of great importance the implement tation of green‘Belt and Road Initiative’ development strategy.In this paper,37 node cities along ‘Belt and Road’ in China were selected as research objects.For which,the urban carbon emission inventory of those node cities in the year 2005,2012 and 2015,based on the international urban carbon accounting scpes and method.It provided emission data from 7 sectors including industrial energy,industrial process,agriculture,service,urban household,rural household,and transportation,and indirect emissions caused by (purchased) electricity systematic characteristic analysis of carbon emissions 37 node cities had been conducted in this study from the CO2 emissions and structure,emission intensity and spatial clustering aspeets.Results revealed that large discrepancies existed between cities in terms of both CO2 emission quantity and spatial pattern.The emissions of top 5 cities were substantially higher than those of the bottom 5 cities (almost by two orders of magnitude).Between 2005 and 2015,the total direct CO2 emissions of all the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ node cities increased rapidly with an average annual growth rate of 4.71%,with the fastest growth in the northwestern area and the largest increase in the service industry.For spatial distribution,the direct CO2 emissions were always maintain the same order from large to small in the year 2005,2012 and 2015:coastal,inland,northeast,northwest,and southwest.In which,direct carbon emissions from coastal note cities accounted for 45.31%.Industrial energy consumption was the main source of direct CO2 emissions in the node cities,accounting for 71%~78%.The per capita CO2 emissions and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in node cities were both lower than the average level of the area where the node cities were located.Since the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ was implemented,the CO2 emission levels per unit of GDP in the cities of the southwest and inland regions had gradually increased.In 2015,the CO2 emission levels per unit of GDP showed an increasing trend in the order:inland,southwest,coastal to northeast and northwest.The node cities could be categorized into groups based on both CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita.Nearly half of the node cities were in the ‘low emission,low economy’ group,which was typical of the node cities in the southwest area.In ‘low-emission,high-economy’ group,which was identified as an ideal urban development model,1/3 of the node cities were included with coastal cities as typical representative.Only three northwestern node cities belonged to the ‘high-emission,low-economy’ group.There were only three nodes in ‘high-emission,high-economy’ group,Zhoushan,Ningbo and Hohhot.The results of this study provided the basis and support for each of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ node cities to find their own low-carbon development paths,and made it possible for node cities to propose low-carbon policy recommendations according to local conditions.