社会群体性事件阶段复杂性差异化的分析方法研究

The Analysis Method of Complexity Differentiation of Stage in the Social Mass Incidents

新兴网络技术和移动平台的快速发展不仅给负面信息的传播提供了机会,而且加速了社会群体性事件的复杂性演化。文章根据危机生命周期理论,运用最优组合赋权和云模型理论建立社会群体性突发事件阶段复杂性差异化的分析方法。结果证实该方法可以计算出社会群体性事件复杂性等级和各发展阶段的复杂性差异、可接受的评价边界以及复杂性等级的模糊度,可以明确事件各阶段演化复杂性的差异和事件整体复杂性,给应急方案的动态调整和启动机制的建立提供帮助。

The rapid development of network technology and mobile platform provide the opportunities for the spread of negative information,accelerate the social complexity evolution of the mass incidents. Based on the theory of crisis life cy-cle,this study uses the optimal combination empowerment and cloud model theory to establish the analysis method of the complexity differentiation of social mass incidents. The results show that this method can calculate the complexity level of so-cial mass incidents and the complexity difference of the development stage,acceptable evaluation boundary and fuzzy degree of complexity level. This method can be used to clarify the differences of the evolution complexity and the overall complexity of the events,and to provide help for the dynamic adjustment of the emergency plan and the establishment of the mecha-nism.