人口老龄化、技术创新对经济增长质量的影响——基于中日两国的比较分析

The Effects of Population Aging and Technology Innovation on the Quality of Economic Growth——Based on System GMM Estimation for Dynamic Panel Data

通过测算中国30个省份与日本47个都道府县层面经济增长质量指标,构建系统GMM模型,创新性地比较分析了中日两国人口老龄化、技术创新对经济增长质量的影响。主要结论有:(1)中国技术创新驱动经济增长质量提升的表现强于日本,人口老龄化对中日经济增长质量均具有负面影响;(2)技术创新与人口老龄化的交互作用对经济增长质量具有正向效应,技术创新可以作为应对人口老龄化挑战的有力举措。但是,这种作用在日本实证样本中统计显著,而在中国实证样本中未通过显著性检验。鉴于此,中国应借鉴日本经验,大力推进产业技术革新,提高老年人健康水平,鼓励老年人二次就业等。

By measuring the economic growth quality indicators of 31 provinces in China and 47 counties in Japan,this paper explores the influences of technological innovation and aging on the quality of economic growth through sys-gmm model.The main conclusions are as follows:firstly,for both China and Japan,technological innovation can effectively promote the quality of economic growth,and the aging of population has a negative impact on it;secondly,the interaction between technological innovation and population aging has positive influence on the quality of economic growth,and technological innovation can be used as a powerful measure to deal with the challenge of population aging.However,this impact is significant in the Japanese empirical sample,but not in the Chinese empirical sample.In view of these,China should learn from Japan,promote the health level of aged people,and encourage aged people to participate in social activities and return to work.