东北老工业基地经济复原力:一个四维分析框架与实证研究

Economic Resilience of the Old Industrial Base in Northeast China: a Four-Dimensional Analysis Framework and Empirical Study

运用包括抵抗力、复原速度、经济结构变化和复原路径变化的四维复原力框架进行分析,得到如下结论:东北老工业基地抗冲击能力较弱,经济结构较敏感,复原速度较慢,并已陷入有偏负复原路径;整体来看,东北老工业基地复原力欠佳,振兴之路任重道远;工业及以其为核心的产业体系陷入路径依赖的负锁定困境是造成东北老工业基地经济复原力不足的决定性因素之一。提升东北老工业基地复原力,既要通过调整经济结构削弱以往路径依赖和负锁定对复原力的消极影响,又要继续加大政策扶持力度以保留作为复原力源泉的人力资本,更要营造良好的软环境,助力地方与企业把握外部发展机遇并增强内部自主创新能力。

Using a four-dimensional resilience framework including resistance, speed of recovery, changes in economic structure, and changes in the path of resilience, the results show that the old industrial base in the northeast has a weaker anti-shock capacity and a more sensitive economic structure. The recovery speed is slow, and has fallen into the partial negative resilience path. Overall, the resilience of the old industrial base in Northeast China is not good, and there is a long way to go to revitalize it. The negative lock-in dilemma of industry and its core industrial system is one of the decisive factors that lead to the lack of economic resilience in the old industrial base in Northeast China. To enhance the resilience of the old industrial base in Northeast China in order to cope with the unexpected impact in the future recovery process, we should not only weaken the negative impact of path dependence and negative lock-in on resilience by adjusting the economic structure, but also continue to increase policy support to retain human capital as a source of resilience, and create a good soft environment to help local government and enterprises to grasp the external development opportunities and enhance internal independent innovation capacity.