天然气区块价值评估参数取值研究

Parameter values in value appraisal of natural-gas blocks

收益法是天然气勘探与生产业务中价值评估最常用的方法,这种方法广泛应用于油气区块合作与转让时的估值,要保证该方法客观反映价值,就要求评估参数的选取一定要真实可靠,最终的评估结果才会准确。最终估值结果同时受人为因素影响,最大的参数有折现率、操作成本、建设投资。通过模拟计算分析各参数对价值结果的影响大小,结合资本市场与生产实际提出了相应的取值方式。对于折现率的研究,其主要参数是根据目前中国资本市场上市接受程度来确定;对于操作成本的研究是划分了天然气的生产流程,重新确定每个点的取值;对于单井投资则认为这个投资因地质条件等原因存在一定程度的不可控性,因此仅作相应的敏感性研究。

As the most common-used one applied to gas exploration and production,income approach is also widely used for value appraisal during cooperation and transfer of oil and gas blocks.So,to choose true and reliable appraisal parameters may guanrantee to gain accurate ultimate evaluation results.These results are certainly affected by human factors.However,the most influential parameters include discount rate,operating cost,and construction investment.In this study,the influence of each parameter on the evaluated value results was analyzed by means of simulation calculation.And then a corresponding value-determining method was put forward based on capital market and production practice.Results show that,as for discount rate,the main parameters are dependent on listing acceptability of domestic capital market;as for operating cost,it's essential to divide gas production process and to redetermine the value of each point;and as for single-well investment which is to some extent uncontrollable because of geological conditions,we only focus on its sensitivity study.