农业增长与环境污染的动态分析——基于2006—2015年面板数据的验证

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION——VERIFICATION BASED ON PANEL DATA FROM 2006 TO 2015

[目的]近年来,我国农业面源污染形势严峻,已经成为现代农业发展的瓶颈。文章主要分析农业面源污染与经济增长的关系,寻求解决农业面源污染问题的有效方法,在一定程度上为我国农业可持续发展和环境治理提出相关政策建议。[方法]选取2006—2015年全国31个省(省份、自治区)的面板数据,以农药、化肥、塑料薄膜流失量作为农业污染排放的主要指标,建立简约式模型考察农业环境的库茨涅茨曲线特征。[结果](1)农业环境库茨涅茨曲线在我国基本得到支持。化肥流失量、农药流失量、塑料薄膜残留量与农业总产值间均存在显著的倒U型曲线关系,除了山东、河南部分年份达到了农药、塑料薄膜污染方程的拐点之外,其余所有省份农业总产值均低于拐点值。(2)在方程中加入控制变量不影响模型的显著性,只是改变了转折点的出现。(3)城镇化水平的提高会减少农药、化肥的使用量但却增加了塑料薄膜的使用量。农业机械化拥有量系数不显著,农业技术进步环境效应并未得到充分发挥。[结论]十三五时期我国农业整体污染程度还会进一步加深,要想真正达到农业产出增长与环境相互协调的目的,必须同时从农业污染和农业要素投入两个方面着手。

In recent years,the situation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China has become a bottleneck in the development of modern agriculture.This paper mainly analyzed the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and economic growth,and searched for effective methods to solve the problem of agricultural non-point source pollution.Some suggestions were put forward for the sustainable development of agriculture and environmental management in China.A simplified model was built to investigate the characteristics of Kuznets curve of agricultural environment using the panel data of 31 provinces(provinces and autonomous regions)in China from 2006 to 2015 for loss of pesticide and chemical fertilizer and plastic film,which were regarded as the main index of agricultural pollution emission.The results show that(1)The Kuznets curve of agricultural environment is basically supported in China.There is a significant inverted U curve relationship between chemical fertilizer loss,pesticide loss,plastic film residue and total agricultural yields.The total agricultural yields of all provinces except Shandong and Henan in some years is lower than inflection point of pesticide and plastic film pollution equation.(2)Adding control variables to the equation doesn′t affect the significance of the model,but changes the emergence of the turning point.(3)With the improved urbanization level,the use of pesticides and fertilizers reduce,but the use of plastic film increase.The quantity of agricultural mechanization is not significant because the environmental effect of agricultural technology progress has not been fully developed.It is concluded that the degree of the non-point source pollution in agriculture will further deepen during the period of 13th Five-Year;in order to achieve the goal of mutual coordination between agricultural output growth and environment,we should take measures from two aspects:agricultural pollution and input of agricultural factors.