吉林省虚拟耕地生产与消费盈亏量时空分异研究

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Surplus and Deficit of Virtual Cultivated Land in Jilin Province

吉林省是我国重要的粮食生产基地,为保障我国粮食安全提供了重要支撑。本研究基于虚拟耕地理论,计算吉林省48个县(市、区)2004—2015年主要粮食作物虚拟耕地的生产与消费盈亏量,并分析其时空分布规律,旨在为保护吉林省耕地资源、合理调整粮食生产战略提供依据。结果表明,2004—2015年,吉林省玉米、水稻虚拟耕地含量较低,大豆虚拟耕地含量较高;玉米虚拟耕地盈余量充足且呈逐年波动增加趋势,水稻虚拟耕地总体略有盈余,亏缺区范围有所减小,盈余量有所提高,大豆虚拟耕地盈余区范围急剧缩小,生产量不能满足当地居民需要,小麦虚拟耕地亏口有所减小,但全省各县(市、区)亏缺情况仍普遍存在。综上所述,笔者建议吉林省可以适当提高玉米和水稻的种植面积,增加大豆的进口量,同时鼓励虚拟耕地贸易,优化农业种植结构并实施农产品虚拟土战略,实现区域水土资源安全以及农业可持续发展。

Jilin province is an important grain production base and provides an important support for the grain security in China.The experiment was conducted to provide reference for protecting cultivated land resource and adjusting grain production strategy of Jilin,the surplus and deficit of the virtual cultivated land of the main crops in the 48 counties in Jilin province from 2004 to 2015 were calculated based on the theory of virtual cultivated land,and the spatial and temporal differentiation were analyzed.The results showed that in 2004-2015,the content of corn and rice virtual cultivated land were lower than that of soybean in Jilin province.The virtual cultivated land of maize was sufficient surplus,which was showed a trend of fluctuations increase year by year;the deficit scope of the virtual cultivated land of rice reduced and the surplus amount increased;the surplus range of the virtual cultivated land of soybean reduced sharply,the production capacity could not meet the needs of the local residents;the deficiency of the virtual cultivated land of wheat alleviated,but the virtual cultivated land of wheat in the whole province was still in a state of loss.Thus,planting maize and rice in Jilin province had obvious comparative advantages compared with planting soybean,suggesting that the planting area of maize and rice should be increased and the import of soybean should be improved.In order to realize the safety of regional water and soil resources and the sustainable development of agriculture,the trade of virtual cultivated land should be encouraged,the structure of agricultural planting should be optimized and the strategy of virtual soil for agricultural products should be implemented.