我国核心通货膨胀率与货币政策的关联机制研究

Study on the correlation mechanism between core inflation and monetary policy in China

物价稳定一直以来都是政府制定货币政策时所要考虑的重要因素。但是现行通货膨胀指标未能剔除短期波动,央行在施行货币政策时会将暂时性的价格波动误判成整体趋势性变化,从而影响政策调控效果与公众通胀预期。鉴于此,运用HP滤波剔除短期波动,获得能够反映长期通胀趋势的核心通货膨胀指标,并通过构建TVP-VAR模型探究数量型与价格型货币政策对核心通货膨胀的调控效果。结果表明,核心通货膨胀率能够有效反映实体经济的运行状况,并降低对短期波动的误判。随着广义货币与最终目标之间的脱离与利率市场化的不断推进,价格型货币政策的调控能力要优于数量型货币政策的调控能力。由此可见,央行应该通过核心通货膨胀衡量我国价格水平的实际特征与态势,并通过稳健的价格型货币政策调整来保障宏观经济平稳运行。

Price stability has always been an important factor to consider when the government is formulating monetary policy.However,the current inflation indicators can not eliminate short-term fluctuations,and the central bank will misjudge the temporary price fluctuations as a long-term trend in the implementation of monetary policy,thus affecting the effect of policy regulation and public inflation expectations.In view of this,we use HP filtering to eliminate short-term fluctuations and get core inflation which can reflect long-term inflation trend.And through the construction of TVP-VAR model,we explore the effect of quantitative and price based monetary policy on core inflation.The results show that core inflation rate can effectively reflect the operation of the real economy activities and reduce the misjudgment of short-term fluctuations.With the deviation of M2 from the objective goal and the continuous promotion of interest rate marketization,the intensity of price-based monetary policy is better than that of quantitative monetary policy.Thus,the central bank should measure the actual characteristics and trends of China's price level through core inflation,and ensure the smooth operation of macro-economy through robust price adjustment.