中美贸易争端对中国主要农业产业部门的影响

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Disputes on China's Major Agricultural Sectors

根据中美公布的加征关税清单,本研究采用一般均衡模型模拟分析了中美贸易争端对中美两国和其他相关国家和地区农业生产和贸易的影响,进而探讨了贸易争端对中国农产品进出口格局以及产业链的影响。研究结果表明,中美互相加征关税后,中国农产品总进口受到影响,美国农产品进出口有所减少;中国农业主要部门进口受到了不同程度的影响,其中大豆等油料以及肉类产品的进口降幅最为明显;而加征关税对美国大豆等油料的出口冲击幅度最大。中美贸易争端也将推高大豆等农产品进口价格,可能导致豆粕及其替代品价格的提高,推高饲料的成本以及畜禽水产品的生产成本及价格。本研究对贸易争端未来的走向进行了分析,并针对农业相关领域可能出现的问题进行警示,针对贸易争端进一步升级提出短期应对策略和中长期策略。

According to the lists of tariffs published by China and the United States,this study uses a CGE model to simulate the impact of Sino-US trade disputes on agricultural production and trade among China and the United States and other relevant countries and regions,and then explores the influence of trade disputes on Chinese agricultural products and trade pattern and the impact on the agricultural industrial chain.The results of the study show that after China and the United States imposed tariffs on each other,the total imports of Chinese agricultural products were affected,and the import and export of agricultural products in the United States decreased.The import of major agricultural sectors in China was affected to varying degrees,including the decline in the imports of soybeans and other oil products and meat products.The increase in tariffs has the greatest impact on the export of US soybeans and other oil crops.Sino-US trade disputes will also push up the import prices of agricultural products such as soybeans,it may lead to an increase in the price of soybean meal and its substitutes,pushing up the cost of feed and the production cost and price of livestock,poultry and aquatic products.This study analyzes the future direction of trade disputes,and warns against possible problems in agricultural related fields,and proposes short-term coping strategies and medium-and long-term strategies for further escalation of trade disputes.