中国农产品价格的异质性特征和分类调控

The Heterogeneous Characteristics and Classified Controls of Agriculture Prices

随着新时代社会主要矛盾的转变,不平衡不充分的发展成为改革的重心,这推动了总量型政策向结构性政策的转型。有鉴于此,本文首先选取方差分解分析总量型政策和结构性政策对农产品价格的调控效果,然后运用二项选择离散模型估计政策调控的非对称性,得出如下结论:第一,总量型货币政策和结构性财政政策对农产品价格的调控效果差异显著,其中前者能维持粮食价格的稳定,而后者更能控制鲜菜和肉类价格的波动,这说明通货膨胀不仅是货币现象,供需因素亦会引起价格波动;第二,宏观经济政策对农产品价格的调控存在明显的非对称性,抑制价格下跌较阻止价格上涨更为容易。这意味着政府应因时制宜地对农产品价格进行分类调控,从而确保政策的灵活性和准确性。

Along with the transition of society’s principal contradictions,the imbalance and inadequate developments became the core issues of reform,thus the effect of overall policies gradually declined while the effect of structural policies was increasingly highlighted.Therefore,this paper employed a variance decomposition method to analyze the effectiveness of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices,and then utilized a binary choice model to compare the asymmetries of macro-economic policies.The main conclusions are as follows:firstly,the effects of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices show significant differences.The latter can control the prices of vegetable and meat well,and the former can affect price of rice better;secondly,the effects of macro-economic policies on agriculture prices show significant asymmetry.It is hard to control when the prices rise while it is relatively easy to control when the prices decline,which means the government needs to control agriculture prices separately to remain flexible and accurate.