临床预测模型:基本概念、应用场景及研究思路

Clinical Prediction Models: Basic Concepts, Application Scenarios, and Research Strategies

临床预测模型是指利用数学公式估计特定个体当前患有某病或将来发生某结局的概率。依据所研究的问题,临床预测模型可分为诊断模型和预后模型。临床预测模型广泛应用于医疗决策、医疗质量管理及医疗资源的配置。临床预测模型类研究包含了研究问题的确立与研究类型的选择、设计与实施,数据管理与质控、预测模型的建立与评价、模型的验证、模型的应用与影响评估以及模型的更新一系列环节。

Clinical prediction models are mathematical equations that used to estimate the probability of having a disease or condition or the probability that an event will happen in the future.Clinical prediction models can be classified into diagnostic models or prognostic models based on the research question.Clinical predictive models are widely used in healthcare decision-making,healthcare quality management,and medical resource allocation.Procedures in clinical predictive model studies include the identification of the research question and the selection of the study design type,design and implementation,data management and quality control,model development and evaluation,validation,application and impact assessment,and updating of the model.