房价影响因素的研究及预测——以阜阳市为例

Study and forecast of influence factors of housing price——with the example of fuyang city

首先,通过阜阳市统计局及各大官方网站查找到2011年至2017年各项指标的相应数据,使用线性拟合方法并借助Excel软件进行图像绘制,然后根据图像的变化情况找出影响阜阳市房价变化的因素。其次,利用MATLAB软件计算出各项指标在总指标中的贡献率及主成分的个数,再根据累计贡献率得出影响阜阳房价的主要因素及其影响程度。最后,建立回归分析模型,找出了房价与主要指标之间的关系,并借助MATLAB软件绘制出预测交互图,只要将指标数据导入便预测出未来几年的房价变化。

First of all,by investigating the corresponding data of various indicators from 2011 to 2017 from the Fuyang Municipal Statistics Bureau and major official websites,employing the linear fitting method and using Excel software,we draw corresponding mages and find out the influence factors of housing price changes in Fuyang according to the changes of the image.Secondly,the contribution rate of each index in the total index and the number of principal components are calculated by MATLAB software,and then based on the cumulative contribution rate,the main influence factors and impact degree of housing price in Fuyang are also obtained.Finally,a regression analysis model is established to find out the relationship between house prices and major indicators,and a forecast interaction map,which can predict the price changes in the next few years as long as the indicator data is imported,is drawn by the MATLAB software.