论美朝首脑会晤后日本对朝政策的困境与走向

Japan’s Policy towards the DPRK after the U.S.-DPRK Summit:Dilemma and Its Trend

2018年6月12日,特朗普与金正恩在新加坡举行"特金会"。这为日朝关系改善带来契机,但日本对朝政策转变存在诸多困难。首先,"特金会"后,有关"半岛无核化"的博弈仍在继续,美朝双边关系存在诸多变数。其次,后冷战时代,日本一直将朝鲜"威胁"作为日美同盟存续及国内推进修改"和平宪法"的主要依据。日本国内右翼势力并不愿与朝鲜和解。最后,日朝双方关于"绑架问题"的分歧严重影响着日朝关系正常化的进程。总之,日本对朝政策在安倍晋三连任后仍难有实质性突破。

The Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore in June 2018 provides Japan with an opportunity to improve the relations with the DPRK;however,Japan is still faced with difficulties in its policy towards the DPRK.Firstly,the political game relating to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula continues even after the Trump-Kim summit,and there is still great uncertainties in the bilateral relations between U.S.and the DPRK.Secondly,since the end of the Cold War,Japan has been making use of North Korean's"threat"as the main reason for strenthening Japan-US military alliance and pushing for the revision for the constitution.Japans right-wing conservatists are reluctant to reconcile with the DPRK.Thirdly,the difference between Japan and the DPRK on the issue of kidnapping seriously affects the process of normalization of relations between Japan and the DPRK.In conclusion,it is still difficult for Japan to make a significant breakthrough in its policy towards the DPRK even after Shinzo Abe’s re-election as the LDP president.