“全面两孩”政策下人口年龄结构、养老保险制度对居民储蓄率的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Population Age Structure and Pension Insurance System on Savings Rate of Residents Under the “Universal Two-child” Policy

"全面两孩"政策导致人口结构转变,引起养老保险支付以及居民储蓄率的变化。本文选取1998—2017年中国省际面板数据为样本构建动态面板模型,实证分析人口年龄结构和养老保险制度对居民储蓄率的影响。结果显示:(1)人口的老龄化趋势会使得养老压力不断增大,从而增加了居民的储蓄;(2)居民储蓄率与收入之间存在正相关关系,居民收入越多储蓄越多;(3)"全面两孩"政策对居民储蓄具有抑制性效果,会降低居民的储蓄率;(4)养老保险参保率与居民储蓄率呈显著的正相关关系,居民在参加养老保险的同时也增加了养老储蓄。因此,建议制定差异化的养老保险制度,建立基本养老金合理调整机制,明确养老保险预期,并适当提高社会养老金的水平。

The “Universal Two-child” policy has led to a demographic change,a change in pension insurance payments and a change in the resident savings rate.The inter-provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017 are used as a sample to build a dynamic panel model.The empirical analysis shows that (1)The aging trend of the population will increase the pressure on the aged,which is influenced by the age structure of the population and the pension insurance system.Thus,the savings of residents are increased.(2)There is a positive correlation between savings rate and income.The more income they make,the more saving they have.(3)The “Universal Two-child” policy has an inhibitory effect on savings and reduces the rate of savings.(4)There is a significant positive correlation between the pension insurance participation rate and the resident savings rate,and the residents also increase their old-age savings while participating in the old-age insurance.Therefore,it is recommended that the government formulate a differentiated pension insurance system,establish a reasonable adjustment mechanism for basic pensions,clarify pension insurance expectations,and appropriately raise the level of social pensions.