改革开放以来中国工业投资存在结构红利现象吗?——基于偏离份额法的实证分析

Is There a Structural Bonus Phenomenon in China's Industrial Investment Since the Reform and Opening-up?——Empirical Analysis Based on Shift-share Analysis

本文基于偏离份额法对工业投资的"结构红利假说"进行了检验。研究发现:(1)总资本生产率增长率主要来源于产业或各省份工业的内部增长效应,结构变迁效应并不显著,结构红利对经济增长的推动只是阶段性现象。(2)从三大产业视角来看,1979—2015年总资本生产率增长率的主要来源是产业内部增长效应;静态效应对总资本生产率增长率的贡献负值居多,说明结构红利现象不明显,但2011年以来连续呈现结构红利现象;动态效应在整个时间段内正值居多;在三大产业中,第二产业对总资本生产率增长率的贡献最大。(3)从分省视角来看,1994—2015年总资本生产率增长率的主要来源是各省份工业的内部增长效应;静态效应对总资本生产率增长的贡献负值居多,22年时间里只有6年出现结构红利现象;这一时期动态效应对总资本生产率增长率的贡献正值居多。

Based on shift-share analysis,this paper tests the structural bonus hypothesis from the angle of three major industries and sub-provinces.The result shows:(1)Whether from the perspective of three industries or from the perspective of sub-provinces,the growth rate of total capital productivity mainly comes from the internal growth effects of industries or provinces and municipalities,but the structural change effect(i.e.the structural bonus hypothesis)is not significant.The promotion of structural dividend to economic growth is only a phased phenomenon.(2)From the perspective of three major industries,the main source of the growth rate of total capital productivity from 1979 to 2015 is the growth effect within the industry,and the contribution of static effect to the growth rate of total capital productivity is mostly negative,which indicates that the phenomenon of structural bonus is not obvious.But since 2011,the phenomenon of structural bonus appears continuously;the dynamic effect is mostly positive in the whole time period;among the three major industries,the secondary industry has the biggest contribution to the growth rate of total capital productivity.(3)From the perspective of sub-provinces and municipalities,the main source of the growth rate of total capital productivity is the internal growth effects of industry in each province and municipality,and the contribution of static effect to the growth rate of total capital productivity is mostly negative,and only six years of structural bonus appear in 22 years.The dynamic effect of this period contributed to the growth rate of total capital productivity.Finally,the paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations to excavate the structural bonus.