外汇储备对我国“三元冲突”有纾解作用吗?

Does China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Solve "Trilemma Conflict"?

在开放经济背景下,基于"三元悖论"理论基础,通过构建我国货币政策独立性、汇率稳定性和资本开放程度指数与外汇储备增长指数之间的实证分析模型。结果表明:在拓展"三元悖论"模型下,我国"三元冲突"存在着长期的均衡解,并存在短期的正向内在调整机制,也即外汇储备对我国"三元冲突"存在纾解作用。另外,货币政策独立性和资本开放程度对我国外汇储备增长有正向作用,汇率稳定性对我国外汇储备增长有负向作用。

Based on the theoretical foundation of Mundel Trilemma,this paper establishes an empirical model to test the relationship between China's monetary policy independence,exchange rate stability,capital openness index and foreign exchange reserve growth index under the background of open economy.The results show that:there is a long-term equilibrium in the development of"Trilemma conflict"model,and there is a short-term positive internal adjustment mechanism which indicates China's foreign exchange reserves contribute to solve the Trilemma conflict.In addition,the independence of monetary policy and the degree of capital's openness has a positive effect on the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves.The stability of exchange rate has a negative effect on the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves.