近67a影响山东台风频数的变化特征及其与若干气候因子的关系

Frequency variation characteristics of typhoons affecting Shandong in recent 67 years and their relationship with several climate factors

利用1949—2015年台风年鉴资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA资料等对近67 a影响山东的台风频数特征及其与相关气候因子的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)影响山东的6类台风中沿海北上类最多,登陆填塞类最少。8月和8月上旬是主要月份和旬份。台风年代际变化明显,并存在显著的26 a年代际尺度和5 a年际尺度的周期变化。(2)台风频数与同年份的东亚槽位置、亚洲区极涡面积指数分别呈显著的负、正相关关系。Ni1o3. 4区海温对台风频数存在超前的显著负相关,超前影响分别在1、2、3、4月。台风频数与冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数分别存在显著的正、负相关关系。春、夏、秋季和年PDO冷位相时台风频数偏多,PDO暖位相时台风频数偏少,这与西太平洋副热带高压和低层水汽条件关系密切。(3)冷、暖位相年台风频数与太平洋海温分别存在显著的相关区,特别是冬季暖位相时赤道中东太平洋显著负相关区域较大。年PDO冷位相与夏季的显著相关区较相似,暖位相与秋季相似。(4)太平洋海温与台风频数相关性较好的海域主要有3个关键区:赤道中东太平洋、北太平洋中部和西太平洋暖池。其中赤道中东太平洋的的显著性表现在冬季,北太平洋中部的显著性表现在年、春、夏、秋季,西太平洋暖池的显著性表现在夏、秋季。

Based on typhoon yearbook data from 1949 to 2015, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA data, etc., frequency characteristics of typhoons affecting Shandong in recent 67 years and their relationship with relevant climatic factors were analyzed. It showed that:(1) Typhoons moving northwards along the coastline had the largest number and those entering inland had the smallest number among six types of typhoons affecting Shandong Province. August and the first ten-day period of August were the month and ten-day period when typhoon occurred most frequently. The typhoon has obvious interdecadal changes, and there are significant cyclical changes at the 26-year decadal scale and the 5-year interannual scale.(2)The frequency of typhoon has a significant negative and positive correlation respectively with the East Asian trough position and the polar vortex area index in Asia in the same year. The SST in Ni o3.4 area has a significant advanced negative correlation with the frequency of typhoon. The advanced impacts occur in January, February, March, and April respectively. Typhoon frequency had a significant positive correlation with NAO index in winter and negative correlation with PDO index. In spring, summer, autumn and during a year during the PDO cold phase, the typhoon occurs more frequently, and during the PDO warm phase, the typhoon occurs less frequently, which are closely related to the western Pacific subtropical high and low-level water vapor conditions.(3) During years in the cold phrases and warm phases, there are respective areas where there are significant correlations between typhoon frequency and the Pacific SST. In particular, in the winter warm phase, there are large areas in the middle-east equator Pacific Ocean where there are significant negative correlations. Areas where there are correlations in a year during the PDO cold phase are similar to those in summer, and those in a year during the PDO warm phase are similar to those in autumn.(4) There are three key sea areas where the Pacific SST and typhoon frequency are better correlated: the middle-east equator Pacific Ocean, middle of north pacific ocean, and western Pacific warm pool. Among them, the significant correlation in the middle-east equator Pacific Ocean was demonstrated in winter, that in the middle of north pacific ocean was demonstrated in spring, summer and autumn and that in the western Pacific warm pool was demonstrated in summer and autumn.