摘要
基于1965—2014年北京颐和园观测的东京樱花(Cerasus yedoensis)始花期数据和同期日均气温资料,运用相关、回归分析法和M-K突变检验法分析了北京地区东京樱花始花期对气候变化的分段响应情况。结果表明:1965—2014年间,北京地区东京樱花始花期总体呈现显著提前趋势,且于1990年发生了突变。1990—2014年的平均始花期较1965—1989年提前了10 d。始花期与2—4月气温最为相关,气温的敏感度总体为-4. 1 d/℃。对比1990年前后两个时段东京樱花始花期的气温敏感度,发现1990年后始花期的气温敏感度有所增加,从-2. 9 d/℃增至-4. 6 d/℃。根据时空物候模型分析,后一时段樱花开花当日温度相对较低,积温累积的时间也相对较长,这是导致樱花始花期气温敏感度在后一时段较高的直接原因。
According to the mean daily temperature data and the data of the First Flowering Date(FFD) of Cerasus yedoensis in Beijing Summer Palace from 1965 to 2014, the paper analyses the response of FFD of Cerasus yedoensis to climate change in different period by using correlation analysis, regression analysis and M-K mutation test. The results show that FFDs have advanced significantly for the past 50 years and a mutation occurred in 1990. The average FFD from 1990 to 2014 have been advanced by 10 days compared with that from 1965 to 1989. The temperature from February to April most significantly influences the FFD, and the overall FFD sensitivity to temperature is -4.1 d/℃. The temperature sensitivity of FFD during the latter period (1990-2014) is shown to be higher than during the former period(1965-1989), increasing from -2.9 d/℃ to -4.6 d/℃. Based on the spatio-temporal phenological model, the temperature of the very days of FFD in the latter period is relatively low, and the time of temperature accumulation is relatively long, which is the direct cause of the higher temperature sensitivity of FFD in the latter period.
作者
高新月
陶泽兴
王焕炯
张明庆
戴君虎
GAO Xinyue;TAO Zexing;WANG Huanjiong;ZHANG Mingqing;DAI Junhu(College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation/Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2018年第6期832-837,共6页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
中国科学院重点部署项目(KFZD-SW-310)
国家重大科研仪器研制项目(41427805)
关键词
气候变化
物候响应
东京樱花
北京
Climate change
Phenological response
Cerasus yedoensis
Beijing