基于Kriging替代模型的水声传播损失不确定性量化研究

Uncertainty quantification analysis of underwater acoustic transmission loss based on the Kriging surrogate model

针对传统水声传播模型在计算精度与效率上难以平衡的问题,本文提出了一种利用Kriging替代模型进行水声传播损失不确定性量化的快速计算方法。利用Kriging模型替代经典Kraken传播模型,缓解Kraken模型耗时的问题,以较高的效率和精度进行水声传播计算并得到相应的水声传播损失。在此基础上,进一步将Kriging替代模型与蒙特卡洛方法结合起来,对由多个环境变量引起的水声传播损失进行不确定性分析,得到传播损失的后验概率密度分布以及90%置信区间分布。试验结果表明所提方法可以快速有效量化水声传播损失的不确定性,为水声传播损失不确定性量化提供了一种新的思路和方法。

The difficulty in balancing calculation accuracy and efficiency with traditional water acoustic propagation models was addressed through application of the Kriging surrogate model.The Kriging surrogate model in place of the classical Kraken acoustic propagation model in calculating acoustic transmission loss.Analysis of the uncertainty in quantification of the loss is presented.This method was shown to relieve time-consuming problems inherent in the Kraken model,calculating underwater acoustic transmission loss with high efficiency and precision.On this basis,the Kriging surrogate model was further integrated into the Monte-Carlo framework.The uncertainty of the underwater acoustic transmission loss caused by multiple environmental variables was analyzed,deriving the posterior probability density distribution of transmission loss at the 90%confidence level.The test results showed that the proposed method can quickly and effectively quantify the uncertainty in underwater acoustic transmission loss,providing a new approach to uncertainty quantification analysis of underwater acoustic transmission loss.