禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

Analysis on the Avian Influenza,Diversified Management and Family Livelihood of Poultry Households in China

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。基于农村固定观察点2 520个养禽户2004—2012年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。

Previous studies generally agreed that the risk of avian flu would have a serious negative impact on the household livelihood of poultry households,while the statistics show that poultry farming income has decreased significantly after the avian flu risk occurs,but household income is still upward trend.This paper takes the national fixed rural observation point of 2,520 poultry farmers from 2004 to 2012 poultry breeding data as a sample,to study the changes in the livelihood of poultry households under the impact of avian influenza,and the relationship between avian flu risk,diversified production and management and the livelihood of poultry farmers in China by using the Fixed Effect model.The research shows that the outbreak of avian influenza has indeed caused a huge impact on the livelihood of poultry farmers in China,but diversification can weaken the negative impact of avian influenza on the income of poultry households.And compared with the planting industry,poultry households tend to avoid the fluctuation of household income caused by avian influenza by increasing the investment of animal husbandry and non-agricultural employment.The current compensation policy in China for avian influenza is issued only in accordance with the number of culling.In order to make more precise compensation standard and post disaster support policy,we should pay close attention to the heterogeneity of avian influenza on farmers'livelihoods shocks,fully consider the diversification of poultry households,expand the scope of policy concerns,and correctly guide farmers to run concurrent businesses.