企业经营状况、杠杆率和投资结构研究——以重庆市制造业为例

Study on enterprise operating conditions,leverage ratio and investment structure:Taking Chongqing manufacturing industry as an example

构建一套基于产业投资情况、企业内部杠杆率的分析框架,通过VAR模型对重庆制造业企业自身和配套产业投资、行业产出等变化的时间影响范围进行估算。研究发现:在重庆地区,相对于杠杆率指标,制造业企业的流动资金不仅对企业产出影响更加明显,对其他行业的经济增长也有较大的推动作用,这种作用的时间影响可以持续6个月左右;房地产投资和金融服务业对制造业能够在5个月(4个滞后期)左右产生正面影响,但是在大约一年后对制造业产出的稳定性会产生不良影响。

Taking Chongqing as an example,we build a structure analysis framework based on investment situation and leverage ratio within the enterprise.VAR model is used to estimate the time impact scope of changes in Chongqing manufacturing enterprises,supporting industry investment and industrial output.The study found that in Chongqing,compared with the leverage ratio index,the working capital of manufacturing enterprises not only has a more obvious impact on the output of enterprises,but also has a greater impact on the economic growth of other industries.And this effect can last for about 6 months.Real estate investment and financial services can have a positive effect on manufacturing in about five months(four lag periods),but a negative effect on the stability of manufacturing output after about a year.