人民币实际有效汇率的变动能否有效调节中国国际收支——基于11国面板数据的实证检验

Whether the change of RMB real effective exchange rate can effectively adjust China's balance of payments:Based on empirical test of panel data in 11 countries

近年来,中国国际收支呈现出较大顺差,使得我国在国际交往中容易受到他国的贸易制裁,同时也不利于实现我国的国际收支平衡。基于传统的M-F模型,选取了11个国家2000—2016年的相关数据,将国际收支账户细分为经常账户和资本与金融账户,进行面板数据协整检验以及建立个体固定效应模型。研究认为:实际有效汇率对经常账户和资本与金融账户的调节作用都是最强的。建议:一是完善人民币汇率形成机制,调整我国出口产品结构,使经常账户更具有弹性;二是积极有效地引进外资,发展经济,利用资本与金融账户的顺差更好地调节我国国际收支顺差。

In recent years,China’s balance of payments has shown a large surplus,which makes China vulnerable to the trade sanctions of other countries in international exchanges,but also is not conducive to the realization of China’s international balance of payments.Based on the traditional M-F model,this paper selects the related panel data in 11 countries from 2000 to 2016,classifies the balance of payments account into current account and capital and financial account,conducts cointegration test of panel data and establishes individual fixed effect model.It is concluded that the effective exchange rate has the strongest regulating effect on current account and capital and financial accounts.And this paper puts forward two suggestions on adjusting the balance of payments in China:firstly,improving the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism,adjusting the structure of China’s export products and expand our current account surplus;second,actively and effectively introducing foreign capital,developing the economy,and using the surplus of capital and financial account to enlarge our balance of payments surplus.