全球变暖背景下松花江流域气温最新变化特征

The Latest Change of Temperature in Songhua River Basin Under the Background of Global Warming

利用1979—2015年松花江流域47个气象站平均气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、Mann-Kendal检验、空间插值等方法对年及四季气温变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)1979—2015年,松花江及3个子流域年、四季平均气温呈不同程度升温变化,松花江及松花江干流流域升温速率为0.29℃/10a,嫩江及第二松花江流域为0.31℃/10a,各地平均气温从20世纪80年代末增温显著,进入21世纪后气温均有所回落,其中冬季降温最为显著。(2)近37年,松花江及3个子流域气候变化趋势具有较高同步性。各地年、四季平均气温均发生突变,年突变发生在1989年,春、秋季发生在20世纪80年代末期,夏季发生在90年代中后期,冬季发生在1986年。(3)松花江流域各地气温变化速率分布不均,小二沟、哈尔滨和第二松花江南部地区变化速率较大,富锦、泰来、佳木斯等地变化速率偏低。

Based on the mean temperature data of 47 meteorological stations in Songhua River Basin from 1979 to 2015,the temperature characteristics of annual and four seasons are analyzed by linear inclination estimation,moving average,Mann-Kendal test and spatial interpolation.The results show that:(1)during the period from 1979 to 2015,the average temperature of the Songhua River and the three sub-basins varied at different degrees in the year and the temperature rise rate of the Songhua River was 0.29℃/decade,and were 0.31℃/decade for the Nenjiang River and the second Songhua River Basin;the average temperature around the 20th century from the late 80s significantly increased,in the 21st century,the temperature had dropped,which was the most significant in the winter;(2)in the past 37 years,the trend of climate change in Songhua River and three sub-basins had high synchronization,the abrupt change in Songhua River and the three sub-basins occurred in 1989,the abrupt change in spring and autumn mainly occurred in the late 1980s,the abrupt change in summer mainly occurred in the late 90s,and the abrupt change in the winter mainly occurred in the 1986;(3)the variation rate of air temperature in the Songhua River basin unevenly distributed,the change rates of air temperature in the Xiaoergou,Harbin and the southern part of the second Songhua River were greater,the average temperature change tendency rates of Fujin,Tailai and Jiamusi were low.