基于熵权TOPSIS法与ARIMA模型的四川省耕地生态安全动态预测预警

Dynamic Prediction and Early Warning of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Sichuan Province Based on Improved TOPSIS Method and ARIMA Model

耕地生态安全预警研究能够有效引导耕地资源可持续利用。以四川省21个地市州为研究对象,构建了基于DPSIR模型的耕地生态安全预警评价指标体系,采用改进的熵权TOPSIS法进行警情分析,并运用ARIMA模型模拟未来5年警情变化趋势。结果表明:(1)ARIMA模型拟合度高,能够较好地拟合2015—2019年四川省耕地生态安全发展趋势;(2)总体而言,2005—2019年四川省耕地生态安全警情由"重警"变为"中警",预警指数由0.397(2005年)上升至0.501(2019年),最高值为0.524(2014年),总体呈波动上升的态势,表明出现严重生态安全问题的可能性小。(3)就各子系统而言,2005—2019年耕地生态安全压力系统是影响警情的变化的主要系统,该系统中预警值呈波动下降趋势,警度将升至"巨警"状态;驱动力、状态、影响与响应系统,预警值则逐年增大,警度等级逐年降低。(4)未来5年,四川省各地市州耕地生态安全压力区域差异明显,不同的区域应对措施不同,一二级区域将是以后调控的重点区。

Study on the early warning of cultivated land ecological security can guide the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources.Based on the DPSIR model,the evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security was constructed based on 21 cities in Sichuan Province.The improved entropy TOPSIS method was used to analyze the police situation,and the ARIMA model was used to simulate the trend of police intelligence changes in the next five years.The results show that:(1)ARIMA model has high fitting ability,which can fit the development trend of cultivated land ecological security in Sichuan Province during 2015-2020;(2)in general,from 2005 to 2019,the ecological security of cultivated land in Sichuan Province from the‘heavy police’to‘the police’,the early warning index rose from 0.397 in 2005 to 0.501 in 2019,the highest value of 0.524 was found in 2014,the overall trend presented the rising volatility,indicating that the possibility of serious ecological security problems became small;(3)in terms of subsystems,during the period from 2005 to 2019,the ecological security system of cultivated land was the main system that affected the change of police intelligence,in this system,the warning value fluctuated and the warning rose to state,driving force,state,impact and response system,early warning value was increasing year by year,the alarm level decreased year by year;(4)in the next five years,there will be obvious differences in the regional pressure of cultivated land in Sichuan Province,and different regional response measures will be different.The fist and secondary areas will be the key areas for future regulation.