近50年气候驱动下三江平原粮食生产潜力时空演变分析

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain

三江平原作为中国重要的商品粮基地,近年来区域气候变化显著。运用GAEZ模型定量测算了1961—2010年三江平原粮食生产潜力,从整体状况、年际变化、县域差异等角度对近50年以来气候变化导致其粮食生产潜力演变的时空格局进行了分析,旨在为该区种植结构调整及产能保护提供依据。结果表明:(1)1961—2010年三江平原粮食平均生产潜力整体呈现波动性增长态势,每10a粮食生产潜力增长量为140.39kg/hm2,年均增长率为0.60%;1991—2010年的粮食生产潜力呈增加态势但稳定性较低,波动频繁且幅度较大;(2)三江平原粮食生产潜力变化具有显著的县域差异性,北部的友谊县、富锦市等县域粮食生产潜力较大,而南部的穆棱市、勃利县等县域粮食生产潜力较低,且集贤县、密山市、虎林市等县域粮食生产潜力的年均增长率较高,均在0.70%以上,但穆棱市粮食生产潜力年均增长率最小,仅为0.24%;(3)三江平原粮食生产潜力除西部和南部部分区域呈负增长趋势外,其余地区均呈正增长趋势;各地区正向增长的程度有所差异,东南部的部分区域的正向增长程度较高,中部的部分区域的正向增长程度较低。

As an important commodity grain base in China,the Sanjiang Plain is also the significant global warming area.This study estimated the grain potential productivity in Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010 by using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones(GAEZ)model.The spatiotemporal pattern of grain potential productivity caused by climate change in recent 50 years was analyzed from several aspects,such as changes of the whole Sanjiang Plain,annual variation,and differences between counties.The study aimed to provide scientific information for crop pattern optimization and grain production capacity protection.The results indicated that:(1)the average grain potential productivity showed a growth trend during the past 50 years in the Sanjiang Plain,and the grain potential productivity increased by 140.39 kg/(hm^2·10 a),with an average annual growth rate of 0.60%;the grain potential productivity was increasing,but the stability was low,the fluctuation was frequent and the magnitude was large from 1991 to 2010;(2)the spatiotemporal changes of potential grain productivity in different counties showed the great differences,which was caused by the special geographical environment of the Sanjiang Plain;the northern region of the Sanjiang Plain including Youyi County,Fujin City and other counties had the higher potential grain productivity,while southern region of the Sanjiang Plain such as Muling City and Boli County had a lower potential grain productivity;meanwhile,Jixian County,Mishan City,Hulin City had higher average annual growth rate of potential grain productivity than the other counties,and their growth rates were more than 0.70%;however,Mulin City had the lowest growth rate which was 0.24%;(3)the grain potential productivity of the Sanjiang Plain had the positive growth trend except for the negative growth trend in the western and southern parts of this region,the positive growth of each region was different,and the positive growth of some areas in the southeastern part was higher,and it was lower in the central part.