基于ICM和CPM的二阶段航运业发展现状评价方法

Two-stage evaluation methodfor development of shipping industry based on information content maximization and catastrophe progression method

首先基于信息含量最大理论,采用R聚类和变异系数相结合的方法对指标进行筛选,形成由能反映96. 82%原始信息的22个指标组成的航运业发展现状评价指标体系(第一阶段);再基于该评价指标体系应用突变级数法对航运业发展现状进行评价(第二阶段),在确保不降低评价精度的同时,以尽量少的计算量高效地获得评价结论。以2013—2017年福建省航运业为例进行计算,结果表明上述二阶段的评价方法对航运业发展现状评价具有高效性和可靠性。

Firstly,based on the theory of the maximum information content,the R clustering and the coefficient of variation are combined to screen indices to form the evaluation index system composing of 22 indices that can reflect 96.82%of the original information(first stage).Then,the evaluation index system is used to evaluate the development of shipping industry by using the catastrophe progression method(second stage).While ensuring that the evaluation accuracy is not lowered,the evaluation conclusion can be obtained efficiently with the least amount of computation.Finally,the case of shipping industry in Fujian Province in 2013-2017 is evaluated.The results show that the proposed two-stage evaluation method highly efficient and reliable in the evaluation of development of shipping industry.