基于贝叶斯学习模型的水权交易谈判议价模型与仿真

Negotiation bargaining model and simulation of water righttransaction based on Bayesian learning model

通过对水权交易中双方谈判报价机制研究,在水权交易谈判议价环境下,交易双方均期望获取最高收益,由此构建水权交易谈判议价模型。在谈判交易中双方通过贝叶斯学习更新对方底线价格,在估算最大风险接受度的基础上选择下一轮的报价策略,多轮次报价后,将双方报价收敛至合理区间,最终达成一致,完成交易。研究结果表明,谈判议价在保证水权交易合理完成的同时保证了交易中双方受益的最大化,谈判定价在水权交易中是可行且十分有效的定价方法。

Through the studies on the negotiation and quotation mechanism of the two parties in the water right transaction,a negotiation bargaining model for water right transaction is established based on the negotiation bargaining environment in which both parties expect to maximize their benefits.Firstly,in the negotiation and transaction,both parties learn to update their bottom-line prices through Bayesian rules and choose the next round of quotation strategy by estimating the maximum risk acceptance.After multiple rounds of quotation,both parties converge their quotations to a reasonable range,and finally reach an agreement to complete the transaction.The results show that the negotiated price can guarantee the reasonable completion of the water right transaction and maximize the benefits of both parties,and the negotiated price is a feasible and effective method in the water right transaction.